Hope springs eternal in the Spring

by Chris Pollay

Now is the best time to be a baseball fan. No matter who you root for, it’s still early enough in the season to genuinely believe your team has a chance to make it to the World Series.

Nobody knows who the Mighty Baseball Gods will favor in 2010, so why can't it be your favorite ballclub?

Even fans of a team that, say, lost over 90 games last year, can convince themselves that the latest off-season acquisitions will be enough to get over the hump, and those players who suffered through dismal seasons will bounce back with inflated stats all across the board.

It almost sounds plausible.

Then again, I’m also a realist.

When I think back about the Arizona Diamondbacks' 2009 season, I see blood and misery sprinkled in with some anguished screams of abject horror. 

In other words, I see 92 losses and only 70 wins. They finished dead last in the National League West and third worst overall in the NL and it was no fun to watch whatsoever.

But, it’s Spring and there’s hope and I have no intention of reliving last season (screaming things like "Are you TRYING to hit into a double play?" at my unsympathetic television set). If I'm going to relive any baseball memories, I’d much prefer the 2001 season. You know... the World Series. Seven games against the Yankees. Bottom of the ninth. Gonzo bloops it over Jeter and... man, what a fantastic feeling. Too bad it was almost a decade ago.

While I don’t feel at all confident in predicting a trip to the World Series for the D-Backs this year, I can honestly say that I believe they will end 2010 with an overall winning record for the franchise, which is a fancy way of saying they will win at least six game more than they lose this year. (Right now, they are 985-990 over the course of 12 seasons including all playoffs and regular season games). 

I believe Arizona even has an outside chance at making the playoffs, albeit most likely as a Wildcard. It will take some good fortune, though. (Keep in mind, I'm saying this in early Spring when a fan's subverted perception of his favorite team is at his most questionable.)

Terrible injuries plagued the ballclub in 2009 (including Valley Fever, for crying out loud). The most notable ailment was the shoulder problems that shelved their ace Brandon Webb for the entire season after he pitched only four innings and accrued an eye-stabbing 13.50 ERA. Keep in mind, the former Cy Young winner’s previous three seasons looked like this:

2006: 16-8, 3.10 ERA, 235 IP, 178 Ks, Finished 1st in Cy Young race.

2007: 18-10, 3.01 ERA, 236.1 IP, 194 Ks, Finished 2nd in Cy Young race.

2008: 22-7, 3.30 ERA, 226.2 IP, 183 Ks, Finished 2nd in Cy Young race.

So, yeah, his numbers plummeted just a bit last year. The big question mark is how will Webb bounce back in 2010, which is hopefully the year his opposing hitters won't make contact again. His recovery has been a bit uneven so far, but he appears to be progressing slowly back to health. Unfortunately, he is not expecting to start for the team until late April, which suuuuuucks.

However, if he can get back to his old form once he returns, he has enough talent to carry a team on his shoulders for a couple of months. He is that dominant. When you back him up with three-time All-Star Dan Haren, then you have a formidable one-two pitching punch. I also feel that the acquisition of Edwin Jackson will make for a tough third hurler in the rotation. (That main rotation, by the way, inexplicably includes five right handers.)

With that in mind, I still believe there is some hope.

But then I think about the big question mark that is the bullpen. Last year, the D-Backs boasted the second-worst bullpen ERA in the NL at 4.61 and this year there are a lot of unproven young guys to join veterans Bob Howry and Aaron Heilman. If the D-Backs can get some 9th-inning leads, they may have a chance at winning more games though. Closer Chad Qualls recorded a career-high 28 seasons last year before he caught the injury bug and Juan Guitierrez recorded 9-for-9 save chances largely due to his 97 mph heater. 

Of course, they'll need to bat better if they want to lead going into the 9th. This year's projected lineup has a couple of new additions: Kelly Johnson (coming off a bad year) at 2B and Adam LaRoche (who is quite underrated) at 1B. They will replace a pair of .300 hitters from 2009: 1B Chad Tracy and 2B Felipe Lopez who both started on opening day, but I believe both new additions will fit in well with the ballclub.

Also, Mark Reynolds (3B) and (RF) Justin Upton (70 HRs and 188 RBIs between them in 2009) will be returning after monster years that earned them extended contracts. Can they carry the team like they did in the second half of last season? Maybe they'll get some help from catcher Miguel Montero who boasted respectable numbers (.294 with 16 HRs and 59 RBIs), as well.

On the other side of the coin, (SS) Stephen Drew, (LF) Conor Jackson and (CF) Chris Young need to have improved seasons this year (which shouldn't be hard since they batted a collective .233 in 2009). 

Last year, the team was decimated by injuries and plagued by bad hitting and just plain bad luck. I think the key for the team, apart from Brandon Webb returning dominant and healthy, is for Dan Haren and Edwin Jackson to have strong first halves to keep the team in contention. The young bullpen will also have to display a maturity beyond their lack of experience.

Also, Chris Young absolutely must start living up to his potential and make the jump to the next level. The D-Backs sorely need this as they don’t have a good lead-off hitter, and he could be dangerous in that spot if he can get back to hitting the way he did a few seasons back. However, since Young hit only .212 last year with 15 homers and 42 RBIs, I am cautiously optimistic at best.

It could easily be another 70-win season (groan), but if the wonderful and truly generous Mighty Baseball Gods grant better health to the D-Backs in 2010, then that number should climb up to the mid-80s, which probably won't be enough for a playoff spot. However, if Webb can return to his potential, then that could add a few more close victories and push them over the postseason edge.