A Look At the Upcoming Mets Season

A lot has been said about the incompetence of the Mets front office. No one seems to be in charge and it shows. There have been some head scratching moves this offseason – or rather, some lack of moves that are head scratchers. For example, paying Jason Bay, not exactly an elite player, $16.5 million over four years while not making short-term relatively cheap investments at starting pitcher (Joel Pineiro got $16 million/2 years, Ben Sheets got $10 million/1 year), second base (Orlando Hudson got $5 million/1 year) or catcher (though there was not a lot out there). If you do not like the options out there, and your team is filled with question marks and wholes, then these cheap, short-term deals seem perfect. And besides, whatever happened to focusing on pitching and defense, something the Mets have said they will do for more than 5 seasons now?

Still, let’s leave the second guessing of front office moves in the past and look towards this season. It seems to me, Mets fans could be in for one of the more exciting years in recent history. This year opportunities abound for a Mets prospect to step up and surprise people. First base, second base, right field, catcher and the 5^th starting spot do not have people chiseled in stone. Could this be the year Mike Jacobs or Daniel Murphy gets his swing back? Ike Davis takes it to the next level? Fernando Martinez shows people why he was always so highly regarded? Angel Pagan becomes a legitimate every-day starter? Who else out there will surprise fans? Who knows? The team to me seems to be comparable to the Mets teams around the turn of the millennium. Who could be this year’s Timo Perez, Melvin Mora or Benny Agbayani?

It seems the Mets have just a good a chance of winning 70 games as they do of winning 90 games. If one or two prospects step up, the middle of the rotation holds their own and there are few injuries, 90 wins is certainly possible. If the rotation goes to pieces, star players get injured and no one steps up, it could be another 70-win season. Either way, it should be interesting and fun to watch. There are not a lot of expectations for this team and anything is better than watching a bunch of superstars who talk of the World Series ring like its already theirs choke or get injured.

And there is reason to be optimistic. Most statistical projection systems project the Mets to win somewhere around 80 games. While that in itself would not be the end of the world, it seems to me that these projection systems are missing something vital about a team like the Mets – the fact that they have numerous options at a bunch of positions. And many of these options have a real upside. Yes, Fernando Martinez may not look amazing at a 50^th percentile projection for next year. But then he wouldn’t play. Someone else would. The Mets have the opportunity to find the guys who are playing at the 80^th or 90^th percentile at what we can hope for from them next year.