The 3 Boldest Predictions of 2010

So you’re ready for the baseball season to begin, are you? You’re ready for the beginning of the long, thrilling, grueling journey that each team takes over the next 6 months. Chances are that you love it because of the unpredictable surprises that the Major League season always gives us in between the expected parts. Well, I’m with you on that point and I’d like to submit that the only thing better than watching surprises unfold during the season, is predicting them before they happen.

Now I’m not talking about predictions such as “Albert Pujols will be totally freaking amazing” or “A-Rod will date at least five different celebrities this year” or even “Umpires will vie furiously for the right to be the last to ever eject Bobby Cox from a game.” No, I’m talking about bold predictions that require a long walk onto a thin limb and have lots of faith behind them. In short, the predictions that seem insane at first, plausible (but improbable) upon closer inspection, and truly amazing when (if) they come true. In that category, I offer you these three bold predictions for 2010:

1. The Braves will win the National League East.

You heard it right: the Philadelphia Phillies, the presumptive favorite to win the National League in 2010, will mount their title run through the Wild Card slot. Look for the Braves to rally behind legendary manager Bobby Cox for one last triumph. With healthy veterans (Chipper Jones, Tim Hudson) and an infusion of power into the lineup (rookie phenom Jason Heyward), the team’s stellar pitching will carry them directly to the top of the division.

Think about it: The Braves’ rotation includes two starters with sub-3.00 ERAs last year (Tommy Hanson – 2.89, Jair Jurrjens – 2.60), as well as Tim Hudson, who has a career ERA below 3.50, and has had a scorching spring. This is followed by Derek Lowe, an innings-eater whose sinker should produce enough ground balls to keep Yunel Escobar busy running around. Incidentally, the exercise should hopefully help him to lose some of those extra pounds he’s put on that seem to be holding him back from his potential. Kenshin Kawakami’s initial major league showing last year was solid, and he will serve the Braves well as the fifth starter.

In the ‘pen, the back end of games will be handled by a stunningly good trio of relievers. A resurgent Billy Wagner looks like the dominant Hall of Fame closer of a few years ago and he’ll be set-up by Takashi Saito and Peter Moylan, two of the best in the game. With reliable veteran presence in Scott Proctor, poised young talent in Kris Medlen and a great budding middle reliever in Craig Kimbrel , runs will be at a premium for opposing teams.

Sure they’ll pitch great almost every game, but can they score runs? I’m betting they can. With Troy Glaus and Jason Heyward complementing Brian McCann and Chipper Jones, the team finally has some much needed pop at the plate. Look for Nate McClouth to perform well in the absence of last year’s pressure to carry the team. Strong OBP from Matt Diaz, Yunel Escober and Martin Prado will put the Braves’ offense into another gear.

The Phillies are the sexy pick to win the division. Many fear the young Marlins and Strasburgs (er, Nationals). All (well, half) of New York is rooting for a Mets comeback season. Despite this, the Braves’ combination of a strong rotation, strong bullpen and balanced lineup will have them on top of the National League East by the end of the year. Somewhere, Charlie Manuel just fainted.

2. Javier Vazquez will win the AL Cy Young

Go ahead, call me crazy. You don’t have to bite your tongue, just let it out. I understand. And yes, I have looked at last year’s stat sheets of Zack Greinke, Felix Hernandez and C.C. Sabathia. There’s no doubt that all three are fantastic. However, I’ve also compared them to the stats of Javier Vazquez and still I say it will be Vazquez winning the honor in 2010. Remember, these are bold predictions, this is no time to be meek.

Last year, Javier Vazquez went 15-10 for the offensively inept Braves. His stat line runs like this: 219.1 IP, 2.87 ERA, 238 K, 1.03 WHIP, 9.77 K/9, .223 BAA. Each of those totals were among the top 6 best among American League pitchers in their respective category. If you take away the IP category, the remaining totals are each within the top 3. There was only one pitcher in the American League whose totals were among the 6 best in each of those categories: Cy Young winner Zack Greinke.

Much can be said about the vast difference between the National League pitching environment and the American League pitching environment. Certainly there is a fair amount of merit to this, both anecdotal and statistical. Expecting Vazquez to maintain his dominance of last year would be crazy enough even if he had stayed on the Braves, considering that it was his best season ERA of his career by nearly .50, and 1.42 lower than his career average. Still, he must have figured something out, and all it takes is one great year to win the Cy Young. Maybe Bobby Cox taught him how to meditate, who knows. I fully expect Vazquez to excel in his role in the middle of the New York rotation. If Vazquez can keep baffling hitters, the Yankees’ juggernaut offense will give him the W-L record to bring home the hardware. So I say damn the AL/NL hitting disparities and bring on the rare Cy Young for a 3^rd starter in the rotation!

3. The Oakland Athletics will win the American League West

Now, by this point I’m assuming that you can hardly even read the predictions any longer. Your head may be shaking disapprovingly, or even buried in your hands in agony at the sheer improbability of my forecasts. Still, if we take a closer look at the A’s, their odds aren’t as astronomical as they might seem at first.

The A’s have red flags at nearly every position. Can Rajai Davis garner more walks to provide a serious impact at the top of the lineup? Will Kevin Kouzmanoff blossom into his .275/30/100 hitting potential? Is Brett Anderson the next Mark Mulder (pre-injury)? Will Justin Duchscherer and Ben Sheets throw more than 20 innings each before their arms literally fall off?

Clearly, a team with as many questions as this is not a hot pick around the water cooler. Still, I think that most of their areas of concern will resolve themselves favorably and the team will congeal into a formidable unit. The young Daric Barton, Kurt Suzuki and the aforementioned Davis and Kouzmanoff bring a high ceiling to their offense. Having Coco Crisp and Mark Ellis fitting into the lineup gives the team the possibility of some experienced hitting at points in the lineup. Offensively, the team will certainly not be loaded but will produce enough (although barely, I’m sure) to garner wins, given their ERA-stingy pitching staff.

It may surprise some people to find out that Oakland had the 11^th best team ERA in 2009, even better than both the Yankees and the Red Sox. Keep in mind that in 2010 they will add Sheets and Duchscherer , both of whom are low ERA pitchers. Supposing that Vin Mazarro, Dallas Braden and Trevor Cahill all continue to mature as starters, the rotation will be solid.

Behind the rotation, the A’s have quietly amassed one of the best bullpens in baseball. Their middle relief corps of Brad Ziegler, Michael Wuertz, Craig Breslow and Joey Devine had a combined ERA of 2.60 last season. And then teams had to face the phenomenal talent of Andrew Bailey to close out the game. This bullpen group is poised for another lockdown year.

Overall, the A’s are a young team and will be competing in an uncharacteristically competitive AL West this year. Still, the sky is the limit if this extremely talented group of players lives up to their potential. Expect a maturation year for the Oakland Athletics as they overcome all odds to take down the reloaded Mariners and the rest of the “big boys” of the AL West.

Now, with the season less than one week away, we can only sit and let the long winding season prove me spectacularly correct, or astonishingly wrong. In the meantime, go ahead and bombard me with passionate fan mail from all you fans of Phillies, Mets, Mariners, Angels, Rangers, Felix “The King” Hernandez, C.C. “The Garbage Disposal” Sabathia, or Zack “Imagine If He Was On A Different Team” Greinke. Enjoy the season!